2026 NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions

The NBA postseason unofficially kicks off tonight with the play-in tournament, where four teams in each conference battle for two playoff spots. In this post, I am going to predict how the tournament plays out and what those results mean for the postseason.

Eastern Conference Play-In

(10) Miami Heat @ (9) Charlotte Hornets

Starting with the 9 vs 10 matchup, the Miami Heat head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. The Heat know this stage. They have been in the play-in for four straight years and always seem to find a way through.

I think that run ends here.

The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the best teams not just in the Eastern Conference but in the entire NBA since January. LaMelo Ball looks like a completely different point guard, and the rookie sensation Kon Knueppel led the league in three-pointers made this season.

That says everything about how this offence is clicking. I think the Hornets have real chemistry; they have shown it for an extended stretch, and I really like what head coach Charles Lee has done with this group. Their offence is just too much for Miami, and Charlotte moves on.

Prediction: Hornets Win

(8) Orlando Magic @ (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Then we get the 7 vs 8 matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers hosting the Orlando Magic.

I had high expectations for the Magic coming into the season. I thought they could be a sneaky contender in the East. I am still holding on to a lot of Paolo Banchero stock, but I do not love the fit between him and Franz Wagner right now.

As a team, Orlando has been so disappointing. They have been inconsistent, they struggle to shoot, and even when they show flashes of what they could be, it does not last.

For example, coming off 5 straight wins with a chance to clinch a spot in the real postseason, they blow a double-digit lead to a Boston Celtics team resting key players just to get here.

I know the Sixers do not have Joel Embiid, but I do not think that matters. Paul George has been playing great since returning from suspension, and Tyrese Maxey might be the best player on the floor in this game, especially at home.

Prediction: I have the Sixers winning and setting up a first-round matchup with the Celtics.

Final East Play-In: (9) Charlotte Hornets @ (8) Orlando Magic

This sets up Orlando against Charlotte for the final playoff spot. The winner would go on to face the Detroit Pistons. I am sticking with the Hornets. They have been too good for too long to miss the playoffs. Their offence is far more reliable than Orlando’s, and in a game like this, that matters.

Prediction: I think Charlotte gets it done and advances to face Detroit.

Western Conference Play-In

(10) Golden State Warriors @ (9) Los Angeles Clippers

In the 9 vs 10 matchup, the Golden State Warriors take on the Los Angeles Clippers in what might be the most star-driven game of the play-in.

The Clippers have been one of the better teams in the West after a terrible 6-21 start, and it is honestly surprising they even got to this point. As for the Warriors, I just do not think they are a very good team right now.

It is also hard to know what to expect from Steph Curry coming off an extended absence, especially if he is on a minutes restriction in a do-or-die game. I do not love that.

Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers just feel like too much. I have the Clippers winning, ending Golden State’s season and sending them into an offseason full of big decisions.

Prediction: Clippers Win

(8) Portland Trailblazers @ (7) Phoenix Suns

In the 7 vs 8 matchup, the Phoenix Suns take on the Portland Trailblazers.

This feels like a grind-it-out type of game between two teams that will leave everything on the floor.

In a game like that, I am going with the player I trust most to get a bucket late. Devin Booker has had a very underrated season getting Phoenix to this point, and I think he shows up in a big way here. I could see him going for 35 or more.

I think Booker does just enough to get the Suns across the finish line and into the postseason, where they would face Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in the first round.

Prediction: Suns Advance to Play Spurs

Final West Play-In: (9) Los Angeles Clippers @ (8) Portland Trailblazers

Kawhi Leonard is the best player in the game, no question, but Portland’s size has been a real problem for the Clippers in their matchups this season. Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, and Toumani Camara have all made a big impact. I think the Blazers are simply too big, and they win this game to advance and take on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Prediction: Blazers Advance to Play Thunder

Recap:

So those are my play in predictions.

I have the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets coming out of the East, and the Phoenix Suns and Portland Trailblazers coming out of the West.

Let’s see how it plays out. Postseason basketball is here.