2026 NBA Playoff Predictions: Our Last Two Champions Battle in the NBA Finals

The NBA playoffs are here and it’s time to drop my full prediction. I’ll be going round by round all the way to the NBA Finals, breaking down how I think the next two months of basketball will unfold. Let’s get right into it and see how it plays out.

Eastern Conference Round 1:

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Orlando Magic - Pistons Win Series 4-1

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers - Celtics Win Series 4-1

(3) New York Knicks vs (6) Atlanta Hawks - Knicks Win Series 4-3

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors - Cavaliers Win Series 4-2

In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons and Celtics make quick work of the Magic and 76ers.

The Magic have just been way too inconsistent for me to trust at any point this year, while the 76ers are always dealing with injuries, and they’re already missing Joel Embiid.

I think the Cavaliers advance past the Raptors, but I do think Toronto put up more of a fight than people expect. They’re a hard-working group that will make Cleveland earn every bucket.

Meanwhile, I do think the New York Knicks advance, but the Hawks definitely scare them. The Hawks have been one of the better teams in the second half of the season, especially in the East, but I just think the Knicks’ star power is too much to overcome in a winner-take-all game at Madison Square Garden. Give me the Knicks to move on in a seven-game thriller.

Western Conference Round 1:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Phoenix Suns - Thunder Win Series 4-0

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Portland Trailblazers - Spurs Win Series 4-1

(3) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Minnesota Timberwolves- Timberwolves Win Series 4-3

(4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Houston Rockets - Rockets Win Series 4-1

On the Western Conference side, I’ve got the Thunder sweeping the Suns. Phoenix has been impressive this year, but the Thunder are just on another level.

The Spurs, take care of business quickly against the Trail Blazers. Portland did impress me in their play-in win at Phoenix, but with Victor Wembanyama leading the way in San Antonio, it’s just too much for them to handle.

Man, I really wish the Los Angeles Lakers were healthy, because I would’ve loved to see Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James make a deep run together. But if Dončić and Reaves aren’t coming back, I think the Rockets, who have been playing better basketball lately, get the job done pretty quickly.

And honestly, if they don’t, we’re going to have a very serious conversation about Kevin Durant and his legacy.

Meanwhile, I’m going with the upset. I’m taking Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves to beat Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets. I don’t love how many people are just writing off Minnesota and already looking ahead to a potential Wemby vs. Jokic matchup in round two. Denver has got to earn that.

We’ve seen this Timberwolves team give Denver problems before, including going into Denver for a Game 7 and winning. It feels similar to last year when people counted them out before they faced the Lakers and they proved everyone wrong.

Minnesota always seems to rise to the level of competition in the postseason, and I think they do it again.

Give me the Timberwolves in a Game 7 on the road to shock the world and take down the Nuggets.

Eastern Conference Round 2:

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (4) Cleveland Cavaliers - Pistons Win Series 4-3

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) New York Knicks - Celtics Win Series 4-2

In round two in the East, I think the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers play a pretty entertaining series, but you’d be damned if I’m taking James Harden in a crucial playoff scenario. By this point, I think Cade Cunningham will be fairly healthy after returning from his lung injury, and the Pistons get back to the Eastern Conference Final.

In the other matchup, after a really entertaining series last year, I think Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics get their lick back on the New York Knicks after that shocking defeat. The Celtics are just the team I trust more in this scenario. Give me Boston in six games to advance to the Eastern Conference Final as well.

Western Conference Round 2:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Houston Rockets - Thunder Win Series 4-1

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves - Spurs Win Series 4-3

In the West, I think the Houston Rockets will be in for a rude awakening after they get past what’s left of the Los Angeles Lakers and the James family. When they run into the defending champion Thunder. I think OKC absolutely throttles them. Thunder fans get the last laugh once again at Kevin Durant as their team knocks him out and advances to the Western Conference Final for the second straight year.

On the other side, this is a series I’d be hyped to watch between two young stars, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards. Again, I don’t love how many people in this scenario are just automatically counting out the Minnesota Timberwolves, but this time around, I think the San Antonio Spurs are just going to be too athletic and too fast for them. Minnesota is a slightly older group, and over a seven-game series, I think that shows.

Give me Wemby and the Spurs in seven, setting up the matchup everyone wants to see in the West against the Thunder for a trip to the NBA Finals.

Eastern Conference Finals: (2) Celtics def. (1) Pistons 4-1

The Pistons are building something in Detroit that I do think will last. With players like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren leading the way, this team isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

That being said, in this scenario against a more experienced group like the Boston Celtics, I just think it’s too much. I expect Jayson Tatum to start looking more like himself again after coming off the Achilles injury, and Boston’s depth and experience give them the edge.

Give me the Celtics to advance to the NBA Finals.

Western Conference Finals: (1) Thunder def. (2) Spurs 4-3

In the Western Conference Finals, this is the matchup everyone has wanted. The Spurs and Thunder have gone back and forth all year long, and San Antonio has seemingly been the only team to have Oklahoma City’s number.

Even with that, I’m still taking the defending champs to get back to the NBA Finals. I understand the Spurs have been the better team in the regular season matchups and have at times made OKC question what they’re doing on the floor, which is rare. But in a seven game series, I think Oklahoma City’s defense will have an actual game plan for Victor Wembanyama and try to force others to beat them.

I think San Antonio will struggle to find consistent offence, while the Thunder will do enough on the other end. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to carry them through key stretches and do just enough to push OKC over the line.

As much as I like the Spurs, I just can’t see a team that hasn’t fully been through this kind of playoff grind yet in the Wemby era defying all logic and NBA history this early. In the NBA, you usually have to lose before you win, and I think that’s what happens here.

Oklahoma City gets back to the NBA Finals, where they’ll face the Boston Celtics in a matchup of the last two champions, with the Thunder looking to defend their crown.

2026 NBA Finals: (1) Thunder def. (2) Celtics 4-3

Listen, I really, really wanted to pick the Celtics to win this series.

I think it would be an unbelievable story, especially going into the season with Jayson Tatum being uncertain after the Achilles injury. I even predicted Boston to miss the playoffs entirely, and now I’ve got them as a legitimate contender to win the NBA Finals and take down the defending champions.

It would be an incredible, inspirational story for so many people dealing with injuries, seeing Tatum battle back to even reach this point. And I do think the Celtics would have a real shot in the series, as I do have it going seven games.

But I think we’ve maybe reached a point where we’re overthinking it. There was a stretch this season where people thought the Oklahoma City Thunder might break the all-time wins record. They’re the deepest team in the league, the most cohesive team, they play elite defense, and they might even have the best scorer in the NBA in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

At a certain point, until I see someone actually knock them off, I have to pick OKC. They’re still young, but they now have championship experience from last year that they didn’t have when they first broke through. That matters.

I think the Thunder do it again. They defend their title and officially put the NBA on notice as the next dynasty in the league.