2026 Olympic Men’s Hockey Predictions: Group Standings, Medal Round Bracket & Gold Medal Pick

For the first time since 2014, NHL players will be going to the Olympics. And while we got a bit of a taste of best-on-best international hockey last year with a very successful Four Nations tournament, we now return to what we all truly wanted to see: 12 of the best hockey countries in the world (excluding Russia for political reasons that I will not get into) battling it out for hockey supremacy in Milano Cortina, Italy at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.

Here is my full post on my tournament predictions, including how each division shakes out, how the knockout rounds unfold, and ultimately who will be standing on the podium at the end of this tournament.

Tournament Format Breakdown:

• 12 teams total

• 3 groups of 4 teams in the preliminary round

• Each team plays 3 group-stage games

• Points system:

  • Regulation win = 3 points

  • OT/SO win = 2 points

  • OT/SO loss = 1 point

  • Regulation loss = 0 points

• Top 4 teams overall (3 group winners + best 2nd-place team) receive a bye to the quarterfinals

• Remaining 8 teams advance to a single-elimination qualification round (5–12 seeding)

• Quarterfinals, semifinals, bronze medal game, and gold medal game follow

Group Stage Predictions

Group A Standings

1. Canada

2. Czechia

3. Switzerland

4. France

Starting in Group A, there is no shock here. Canada should run away with this division. With the likes of Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and more all on the same team, it is almost unfair for anyone else in this group. I do think the Czechs could be feisty, with guys like David Pastrnak, Martin Nečas, Filip Hronek, and Lukas Dostal between the pipes. But it just will not be good enough to keep up with Canada. Switzerland, like the Czechs, they are always feisty, and they do have a fairly strong team with players like Nico Hischier and Roman Josi leading the way. But the depth just is not there compared to these other countries. And then lastly, France. They just stand no chance in this group. Their best player might genuinely be Alexandre Texier, who, while he has been great for my Montréal Canadiens this season, I do not think is going to be good enough to beat these three countries in Group A.

Group B Standings

1. Sweden

2. Finland

3. Slovakia

4. Italy

In Group B, once again, there is no real shock here. Sweden, I think, just has the best roster by far. They are probably the healthiest going into this tournament. William Nylander, Adrian Kempe, Lucas Raymond, Elias Pettersson up front, just to name a few. On defense, Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Andersson. And then each night they should have at least decent goaltending, if not great. I just think Sweden is likely going to win every round robin game in this group. Second place was really tough for me. I was really tempted to take Slovakia to finish ahead of Finland, since the Finns will be missing their best player in this tournament. Aleksander Barkov, who would have been in the lineup, is out right now with a torn ACL. I just do not think they have that much offensive firepower in this lineup outside of a guy like Mikko Rantanen, and he will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting. On defense, I think the same thing. It is not to say that these defensemen are bad at all, because they are not, but compared to some of these other countries in the tournament, I do think Miro Heiskanen is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting as well. So I do have Finland finishing ahead of Slovakia, but I would not be shocked if Slovakia somehow finds a way to finish second. I do think a guy like Juraj Slafkovský could take a major leap here. We have seen him in the Olympic tournament before in 2022 when he dominated as an 18 year old, and he has been having a great season with the Montréal Canadiens, especially coming on as of late. But I just do not think the team around him is that great. As much as I wanted to be different and take Slovakia to come in second, I have to go with Finland. That only leaves last place here with Italy. The host country I do expect to fight in front of their home fans, but the talent gap is just unreasonable for them to be expected to make up for.

Group C Standings

1. USA

2. Germany

3. Latvia

4. Denmark

In Group C, again, I am not surprising anyone here. The United States is just more talented than anyone else in this group. Auston Matthews, Quinn Hughes, Jack Eichel, the Tkachuk brothers. The US is just going to win this group. It is inevitable. They are simply more talented.

But there is a team in this group that I really like and that I do think will make some noise throughout the tournament, and that is Germany. I am really excited to see this team play. Leon Draisaitl making his Olympic debut, Tim Stützle, JJ Peterka, Moritz Seider, and in net Philipp Grubauer, who has been playing decent hockey this year for the Seattle Kraken. I am telling you, I do think Germany will make some noise throughout the tournament. Just how far they will go, you will have to keep reading. Then Latvia and Denmark. They have made some noise in Olympic tournaments and have come close to pulling off upsets. But I just think Germany and the US are so much better in this group, and they will be the two finishing at the top.

Playoff Seedings

1. Canada (Bye to Quarterfinals)

2. USA  (Bye to Quarterfinals)

3. Sweden (Bye to Quarterfinals)

4. Czechia (Bye to Quarterfinals)

5. Germany

6. Finland

7. Slovakia

8. Switzerland

9. Latvia

10. France

11. Denmark

12. Italy

Medal Rounds:

Play-Ins:

Play-In 1

• (5) Germany vs (12) Italy

• Pick: Germany

Play-In 2

• (6) Finland vs (11) Denmark

• Pick: Finland

Play-In 3

• (7) Slovakia vs (10) France

• Pick: Slovakia

Play-In 4

• (8) Switzerland vs (9) Latvia

• Pick: Switzerland

Now going into the play in for the medal rounds, I am taking Germany over Italy in the 5 versus 12 matchup. Like I said, I really do like this Germany team. While Italy will put up a fight in front of their home fans, they are just going to struggle.

Then in the 6 versus 11 matchup, I am taking Finland over Denmark. More talented. That is what we are going to be getting a lot of in this play in stage, I think.

Slovakia versus France, for some reason, I just cannot explain it, but it does have the makings of an upset. I could see the French being that team that pulls one off. I have no real reason why, it is just a gut feeling. But I do think Slovakia pulls through.

And then in the 8 versus 9 matchup, Switzerland versus Latvia, I am taking Switzerland. They have always been pretty decent in tournaments, and even though Latvia has been close to pulling off some major upsets in the past, I just think the Swiss are more talented.

Quarterfinals

Quarterfinal 1

• (1) Canada vs (8) Switzerland

• Pick: Canada

Quarterfinal 2

• (2) USA vs (7) Slovakia

• Pick: USA

Quarterfinal 3

• (3) Sweden vs (6) Finland

• Pick: Sweden

Quarterfinal 4

• (4) Czechia vs (5) Germany

• Pick: Germany

Then in the quarterfinals, I am telling you, these are going to be some great games. Just looking at these matchups, I think this is going to be the best NHL players Olympics we have ever seen.

In the 1 versus 8 matchup, Canada versus Switzerland. Switzerland is a pretty good eighth place team in an Olympic tournament, but there is a reason Canada is number one. Switzerland will not be able to keep up with Canada’s high end talent. Canada moves on, in my opinion, probably fairly easily.

Then in the 2 versus 7 matchup, for the same reason, USA versus Slovakia. The US, I think, just steamrolls the Slovaks.

Three versus six gives us the rivalry of Finland versus Sweden. While their matchups have been close in the past, and Finland even beat Sweden at the Four Nations last year, I just think at the Olympics this year Finland is coming in pretty shorthanded without Barkov, and that will pay huge dividends in this game. I think Sweden moves on in what could possibly be pretty ugly for the Finns.

And then in the 4 versus 5 matchup, Czechia versus Germany, this is the upset I am going with. I am taking Germany to beat the Czechs. Like I said, I do not know why, but I think Leon Draisaitl is going to be a man on a mission at these Olympics. The Oilers are not playing great hockey right now and are not looking like a Stanley Cup contender. McDavid, in all likelihood, will be leaving with a medal of some kind. Draisaitl is also going to want to leave with some hardware, and I think he is going to put Germany on his back and carry them to the medal round.

Semifinals

Semifinal 1

• (1) Canada vs (5) Germany

• Pick: Canada

Semifinal 2

• (2) USA vs (3) Sweden

• Pick: USA

In the first semifinal, Oilers teammates square off as Connor McDavid and Canada take on Leon Draisaitl and Germany. I think this is when Germany’s hopes of a gold medal game appearance come crashing down. Canada, like I said, is just so much better than the majority of the teams in this tournament. I do not think this game will be close, and Canada will move on to the gold medal game.

In the second semifinal, the United States takes on Sweden in what should be a fairly close game. Sweden did beat the United States last year at the Four Nations, and that was in the United States’ home country. That will mean the Americans come out guns blazing, looking for some revenge after losing to this team last year. I think this game could get fairly chippy, as the United States will probably remember that matchup. I do think the United States advances and goes on to face Canada in the gold medal game.

Bronze Medal Game

• (3) Sweden vs (5) Germany

• Pick: Germany

So then in the bronze medal game, we have Sweden against Germany, and I am going with an upset here. I do not want to go with the chalk pick of Canada and the United States in some order of one and two, and then in all likelihood Sweden three. If we get to the bronze medal game at the Olympics, I think you have to look at which country this would mean more for.

And I think for Germany, this would mean a ton. Sweden plays for gold medals. Germany, not to discredit them, but I do not think they have ever had a team this good at the Winter Olympics in hockey. This would be one of Leon Draisaitl’s most impressive achievements to date if he can help Germany medal at these Olympics.

I think they would play the bronze medal game like it is the gold medal game, because it would mean that much to their country and to their hockey program to show how far they have come. And while the Swedes probably are the better team, I think the Germans would be the more motivated group in this game.

I am taking Germany to medal at the Olympics.

Gold Medal Game

• (1) Canada vs (2) USA

• Pick: Canada

The game we will have all been waiting for at this point, Canada versus the United States. After their two epic games at the Four Nations last year, where they split the series, the US won the round robin game in Montreal, then Canada won in overtime on Connor McDavid’s goal to win gold and show Canada is still at the top of the hockey world. The US will now have a chance to try to take it back.

I do not think they will.

I think Canada’s roster is just better this time around. I do not think Mike Sullivan is as good of a coach as Jon Cooper. I think Canada’s players have shown they rise to the occasion more often than the United States players, specifically looking at guys like Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Cale Makar, whoever you want to name. I will take them over a team led by Auston Matthews, who has struggled in big moments. Sure, there are the Tkachuk brothers. Specifically Matthew, I do think, could have a great game here. But he is also just coming back from injury with the Florida Panthers, and I do not expect him to be playing his best hockey. I would expect him to be fairly rusty, and he will be heavily relied upon.

Quinn Hughes will have something to say because he was not at the Four Nations last year, and he will want to make up for his absence. But I just do not think it is going to be enough.

If the US has any advantage, it is in net. I would expect them to go with Connor Hellebuyck in this situation if this were the gold medal game. But in the NHL playoffs, he has had a tendency to fade in big games when his team needs him the most.

So I am taking the team I trust. Obviously, I am biased. I am Canadian. But I am taking Team Canada to win gold once again and beat the United States at the Olympics.