5 NFL Bets I Like For Week 1: Against the Spread, Player Prop, Upset Pick, and More

Week 1 has arrived! To celebrate the return of football, here are five bets I’m absolutely loving for this weekend's slate. Throughout the season, I plan to track these picks as well as every week, I plan on posting an article like this before the Sunday games, as I will track these picks along with my straight-up picks, as well as the ones against the spread.

Note: All Odds Provided By Bet365

Against The Spread: Houston Texans -2.5 (-110) @ Indianapolis Colts

Heading into this season, the Texans are one the most hyped teams in football as we enter Week 1. Following last year's remarkable turnaround and division title, Houston is now considered one of the top contenders to win the AFC in 2024. Their first step in their quest to the big game in New Orleans will be on the road as 2.5-point favorites against their division rival, the Indianapolis Colts. In 2023, the Colts also drafted quarterback in Anthony Richardson with the 4th overall pick, and although he showed great promise, his season was cut short after just four games due to a shoulder injury. Now, Richardson makes his much-anticipated return to the Colts lineup. Although there has been plenty of buzz about this being a potential trap game for the Texans, I’m confident Houston will cover in this spot. While Anthony Richardson didn’t get many snaps last year, the Texans were one of the handful of teams he did face. Therefore, I expect Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans to dial something up for the second-year QB. Not to mention, the Colts had one of the worst secondaries in football last season and did little to improve it. I expect C.J. Stroud to air it out all afternoon, and like the Texans to cover as a road divisional favorite in Indy.

Underdog Money Line Pick: Washington Commanders +160 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Do I love this pick? Not really, but it came down to a couple of games for me. I think either the Titans go into Chicago and spoil Caleb Williams' debut, or, the second overall pick, Jayden Daniels, and his Commanders head into Tampa and upset the Bucs, after reviewing, I ended up choosing the latter. It essentially came down to which environment I think will be overwhelming for the visiting teams. I believe the crowd in Chicago will be as energetic as they’ve been in years, with all the hype surrounding the Bears this season, whereas the crowd in Tampa I don't think will be nearly as energetic. Also, I think Daniels will be a better quarterback than Will Levis right away. Despite the weak offensive lines both the Commanders and Titans have, I expect Daniels to use his mobility to escape the pass rush Todd Bowles will throw his way in his first career game.

While I am not as high on the Commanders as some are this season, I think they go on the road and get the upset win in Tampa to kick off this new era of football in Washington.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Kenneth Walker III (+100) Vs Denver Broncos

In 2023, the Denver Broncos had the 30th-ranked run defense in the NFL. As far as I can tell, the Broncos did not do much to address that over the last 9 months. With that, I think the Seattle Seahawks are likely to try to take advantage of that weakness in Week 1. Over the summer, reports from Seattle this offseason have been about Kenneth Walker and how he has been one of the standout players in camp. After the addition of Zach Charbonnet last year that brought up a running back battle, Walker is once again the clear RB1 in Seattle.

With Ryan Grubb as the new offensive coordinator, the Seahawks are expected to get the ball into the hands of their best players on a more consistent basis, which Walker is. While I anticipate the Broncos to cover the spread in Seattle, I think K9 will get into the end zone on Sunday.

Player Prop: Breece Hall Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

In many fantasy drafts this offseason, Breece Hall was selected as the first overall pick, setting high expectations for the Jets' running back in his third year. On Monday Night Football when the Jets travel to the Bay Area, it will hopefully mark Aaron Rodgers first full game since January 2023. Because of that, I anticipate the Jets will ease him back into action and lean heavily on the run game. I expect Hall to receive close to twenty touches as the Jets will look to protect their 40-year-old QB. Despite taking on the 49ers elite defense, I think Hall gets the volume and hits his over on rushing yards.

Over/Under: New York Vs San Francisco 49ers Under 43.5 Points

Yup, not one, but two bets for Monday Night Football, and I really love this one. I'm going with the under 43.5 in total points, and I love it for multiple reasons. Once again, this will be Aaron Rodgers making his first full start in nearly 20 months, I don't think we should expect him to come out guns blazing given how much time he has had off. I expect Rodgers to come out rusty in what I am considering his true New York Jets debut. Additionally, both teams have major questions surrounding their offensive lines. For New York, despite their big additions up front this offseason, until we see it in action, I will have to say it is suspect for now, given the team's history. On the 49ers side, All-Pro tackle Trent Williams finally returned from a contract holdout for the 49ers last week and with his limited practice time, I would not be surprised if Williams is uncharacteristically beat on a couple of occasions. I think both team's elite defenses will dominate and control a majority of the game, where the scoring opportunities will be rare.

Give me the under 43.5