Based on My “Formula”... I'm Picking The Michigan Wolverines to Win March Madness

Tomorrow, every sports fan’s favourite tournament of the year begins: March Madness. 64 teams. One-and-done. All are battling to see who’s the best college basketball team left standing.

I’ll fully admit, I’m not someone who watches college basketball consistently. I keep up with some of the top prospects heading into the NBA Draft, but I’m not tuning in every night.

And yet, somehow, over the past five tournaments, I’ve managed to correctly predict the champion. Baylor in 2021, Kansas in 2022, UConn in both 2023 and 2024, and the Florida Gators last year.

How did I do it? It’s simple. I use the NCAA’s official bracket website, check certain stats, and pick the team with the matchup advantage according to the numbers I care about. No guesswork, just certain stats I value.

Based on this year’s bracket, my pick for the final is the Michigan Wolverines over the Duke Blue Devils.

Basic stats I focus on:

• Three-point percentage

• Field goal percentage

• Free throw percentage

• Steals per game

• Blocks per game

• Offensive rebounds per game

• Last 10 games'' win percentage (I like teams coming in hot)

Advanced stats I focus on:

• Offensive efficiency

• Defensive efficiency

• Net ranking

• Second chance points

• True shooting percentage

• Total rebounds per game

I plug all of those numbers in, and Michigan comes out as the most statistically favoured team to win this tournament, so that's my pick.

Some other interesting outcomes the stats suggest:

Notable Round 1 upsets:

• (11) South Florida over (6) Louisville

• (11) VCU over (6) North Carolina

• (12) Akron over (5) Texas Tech

• (10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky.

"Cinderella" Runs:

• (10) Santa Clara—Eliminated in Sweet Sixteen

• (11) South Florida—Eliminated in Sweet Sixteen

• (12) Akron—Eliminated in Sweet Sixteen

Regional Finals:

• East: (1) Duke over (2) UConn

• South: (1) Florida over (7) St. Mary’s

• West: (1) Arizona over (3) Gonzaga

• Midwest: (1) Michigan over (3) Virginia

That means all four number-one seeds make the Final Four (yes, I know... boring), with my pick of Michigan over Duke to take the national championship.

I’m putting $20 on the Wolverines to win, which would return $90 if it hits. Can I make it six years in a row of picking the right champion? Probably not now that I’ve published it, but we’ll see.

Let the madness begin.