I Think They Could Surprise Some People This Season...

As I begin to my do prep for the 2025-26 NHL season, I started to look for teams I think could surprise some people in a positive way this upcoming season. On the surface, I shouldn't have high expectations for the New York Islanders this season. In June, they traded defenseman Noah Dobson, who was one of their, if not their top player to the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for two first round picks and forward Emil Heineman. And at the trade deadline in March, they sent Brock Nelson, a longtime fixture of their forward core, to the Colorado Avalanche. Those deals make it feel the Islanders were ready to take a step back over the next couple of years. However, I can't get rid of the feeling that I think Isles could be sneaky good this upcoming season.

Sure, the Islanders are coming off picking first overall in this past June's draft, but this was not a "normal" first-overall-selecting team. It was not as if the Isles were tanking or even finished anywhere close to the bottom of the NHL standings. In fact, they were still in the running for the playoffs up until the final five or six games of the season. At the draft lottery, they actually had the eleventh-best odds in the lottery. For a team that traded Nelson, who was one of their best forwards, for prospects and picks instead of players who could help them immediately, I just do find it impressive they stuck around as long as they did.

The team selected defenseman Matthew Schaefer with that first pick. I'm not sure if he'll stay with the team for the entire season, but if he does, his talent and creativity could provide a boost on the backend if the team decides it's best for his development.

Circling back to the Nelson trade, that deal saw the Isles acquire forward Calum Ritchie who is regarded as one of the better prospects in the NHL's pool of young players. One of the NHL's top prospects, Calum Ritchie, was acquired from Colorado as part of the Nelson transaction. This season, Ritchie has a real chance of making the team and if he and Schafer do, that could provide the Isles a spark by adding two young, talented players to an already competitive roster. 

And remember, this is a team that almost made the playoffs last year even without perhaps their best player, Matthew Barzal, who only played in 30 games last season.

If Barzal can stay healthy and get back to being the near-point-a-game player he was just in the 2023-24 season, that could change the entire outlook of this Islanders team, which has had trouble scoring goals on a consistent basis in the past.

Not to mention, if Barzal can stay upright, it also gives the Islanders sneakily one of the better 1-2 punches down the middle with him and Bo Horvat centering their top two lines. Horvat is one of the more underrated two-way centres in the league today and should typically be counted on to score around 60 points a year.

The Islanders biggest off-season addition this summer in terms of free agency also should help their forward group as they signed winger Jonathan Drouin to a 2-year $8 million contract. While I have my issues with Drouin as a Canadiens fan, there is no denying that over the last two years in Colorado, he did revitalize his career scoring 93 points in 122 games over 2 seasons with the Avalanche.

I just think the Islanders forward group is a lot better and deeper than people realize. Forget about Barzal, Horvat, and Drouin, who we've already mentioned. I like the depth pieces like captain Anders Lee, 24-year-old Simon Holmstrom, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who continues to be a dependable piece down the middle, and personally, I grew to love Emil Heineman last season with the Canadiens, who the Islanders got in the Dobson trade. Although the forward group isn't overly talented, it's balanced enough to keep them in games, especially if their best players can stay healthy.

While I do kind of love the forward group, one of my biggest concerns for the Islanders comes back to their defence core. There's no hiding the fact that losing Dobson hurts, and not getting back an NHL-ready defenseman right away hurts, as he was their best offensive defenseman and ate big minutes for them. He is not a player that will be easily replaceable for them. However, Alex Romanov keeps improving each year, and the loss of Dobson could be less painful if Schaefer can make an impact right away as a rookie. Even if the defence isn't great, they do have one element that could help make up for that.

Enter Ilya Sorokin.

Sorokin is still one of the NHL's best goaltenders and is one of the few remaining who still plays somewhere from 55 to 60 games a season. If the Islanders can get enough scoring up front, Sorokin is good enough on his own to keep them in games almost every night, which could at least help try to make up for their "improving" blue line.

So as we near the end of this article, you may be wondering, "Well, Aaron, do you think you're going to pick them to make the playoffs?" Well, as of right now, I think I will be, but it is still early. I also don't think it is that hot of a take, as most sportsbooks I have only have Islanders to make the playoffs bets at just +200, which isn't exactly crazy value.

Honestly, the only thing really holding me back from doubling down on picking the Islanders to make the postseason comes down to the fact that they decided to end up keeping head coach Patrick Roy to at least begin the season.

Yes, it kills me to say that as a Habs fan and Roy being one of the greatest goalies to ever play the game. While he brought energy and a boost to the franchise when he arrived on Long Island in early 2024, I can’t shake the feeling that I think his days are numbered behind the Islanders bench already. With a new general manager taking over the franchise in Mathieu Darche, I wish Darche had just pulled the plug on Roy as head coach instead of delaying the inevitable, which is the fact that Darche will want to bring in his own guy, likely at some point in 2026.

Coaching stability matters, and until I know they have the right long-term fit behind the bench, I would be shocked if we hear reports early on in the season that Roy has "lost the room" if the Islanders get off to a slow start.

Nevertheless, I think there is enough evidence to suggest that the Islanders could surprise people this season and make a playoff push. It's not impossible to see Barzal staying healthy, Horvat continuing his strong play, the depth scoring, the three young kids stepping up, and great goaltending from Sorokin. I know that's a lot of "ifs" or things to hope for, but the Isles may not be flashy, and I don't necessarily think this group is as far away from a postseason appearance as some may be thinking going into the 2025-26 season.