It's Early, But This NBA Season Already Looks Like It's a Two-Team Race for the 2026 Championship

We’re only a few weeks into the NBA season, but the picture at the top is becoming clearer by the day. As much as we love to convince ourselves that the league is wide open — that five, six, or seven teams could realistically win a title — the early evidence says otherwise. At this point, I think the 2026 NBA championship is shaping up to be a two-horse race.

Unless Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Nikola Jokić suffers a major injury, the Larry O’Brien Trophy is headed back to either Oklahoma City or Denver.

Over the last few years, parity has been the NBA’s biggest storyline. No team has repeated as champion. No defending champion has even reached the conference finals since the 2018–19 Golden State Warriors. But this year already feels different.

Both OKC and Denver have separated themselves from the pack in ways no other team can match — in talent, identity, chemistry, and just simply dominating.

With the Thunder, the question was were they too young to win a title, well we found out they weren't and this year, they look even better.

OKC has opened the season around 12–1, looking not just like a top contender but like a historically great team. They’re good enough to chase 70 wins, and even the Warriors’ famous 73–9 record doesn’t look out of reach if they stay healthy.

Despite the championship, SGA said he wasn’t satisfied with the team's performance in the playoffs last year. That mindset is showing — he’s somehow taken another leap and is still a top MVP candidate.

Not to mention, the team around him has gotten better as well.

• Chet Holmgren continues to develop into one of the league’s most versatile two-way bigs.

• Ajay Mitchell has emerged out of nowhere as a reliable bench piece.

• Veterans like Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein continue to do the little things that win games.

• Jalen Williams hasn’t even returned yet — and they’re still blowing teams out.

This is what a budding dynasty looks like. And I honestly think there is only one team who can hang with them. The team built around the best player in the world.

Nikola Jokić has been the world’s best player for 3–4 years running. This season, the Nuggets finally put a stronger roster back around him, something they’ve struggled with since their 2023 championship.

The Nuggets’ offseason additions have already paid off:

• Tim Hardaway Jr. is giving them scoring and spacing.

• Jonas Valančiūnas provides a real backup big, allowing Jokić long-overdue in-game rest.

• Jamal Murray entered the year in shape.

• Cam Johnson hasn’t even shot well yet — and they’re still winning consistently.

Denver looks like the complete, balanced, playoff-ready version of itself that many expected over the last couple of years.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić might be the two best players in basketball right now. Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo have a case, but Shai is the reigning champion leading the league’s best team — and Jokić continues to put Wilt type numbers.

I think this is shaping up to be the closest thing we’ve had to Warriors–Cavs in years, except this time the real Finals would happen in the Western Conference Final.

So yeah, the NBA isn’t as open as people want to believe. Not this season. Unless injuries intervene, we’re watching two giants march toward each other for a collision that already feels inevitable.