The Silcoff Selections: Best Bets for Super Bowl LX

Super Bowl LX is this weekend, as the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots face off for the ultimate prize. With this being the final football game of the season, it also means it’s our last chance to make a little bit of money.

I’ve already posted a full preview, which you can find here. But in case you’re too lazy to go to the link, here’s my score prediction: Seahawks 19, Patriots 16. That means the Patriots cover the 4.5-point spread, the game total of 46.5 goes under, and my Seahawks moneyline hits.

So that’s the intro. Now let’s get more specific with some player and game props.

Bet 1: Over 5.5 Total Game Sacks (-105)

We’ve seen the Patriots’ offensive line struggle throughout the playoffs, giving up five sacks in each of their games, and that trend could easily continue against this Seahawks defense, which is excellent at rushing the passer.

On the flip side, New England has also been able to generate pressure, especially from the interior of the defensive line. That’s a major concern for Seattle, where the interior offensive line has been a weakness all season. With players like Anthony Bradford and Jalen Sundell going up against the likes of Milton Williams, I expect both quarterbacks to be under a lot of pressure. Because of that, I see the total game sacks reaching at least six.

Bet 2: Over 63.5 Total Game Pass Attempts (-115)

I know a lot of you might be wondering why I’m going this direction since I expect both quarterbacks to be under pressure. Well, I don't think either team will be that successful in the run game as both are going up against two of the best run defenses in football.

I expect this game to stay close, and I also expect both defenses to do a good job of shutting down the running backs. That’s going to force both quarterbacks to throw the ball if they want to keep possession and move the offense. Because of that, I think Maye and Darnold are both going to have to throw a ton in this game, and I like the total pass attempts to hit the over.

Bet 3: First Quarter Under 7.5 Points (-120)

I just expect this to be a very defense-oriented game, and I’ve written about that in all of my previews leading into this Super Bowl.

I think both quarterbacks are going to look fairly nervous to start the game, and both of these coaches are defensive-minded. They’ve spent the last two weeks preparing for each other’s offenses, and because of that, I expect a slow, methodical first quarter. Both teams are going to try to limit mistakes and play things pretty conservatively early on, which is why I really like the under 7.5 in the first quarter.

Bet 4: DeMarcus Lawrence to Record a Sack (-110)

Will Campbell and the Patriots’ tackles struggle with keeping pressure away from Drake Maye, and I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t continue again this week.

I expect that early in the game, the Seahawks’ edge rushers will be able to get after Maye, and eventually he’s going to eat a sack. DeMarcus Lawrence has been excellent all season for Seattle, and I think he gets to Maye at least once during this game.

Bet 5: Leonard Williams to Record a Sack (+100)

That then leads into bet number five, which is Leonard Williams to record a sack for the Seahawks. Once Will Campbell starts to struggle, or once the Patriots see how he’s holding up against Seattle’s edge rushers, I expect them to start double-teaming or at least providing more help on the outside.

If that happens, it’s going to open things up on the interior, and that’s where Leonard Williams can really make his impact. Williams has been the heartbeat of the Seahawks’ defense all year long and one of the best players on that unit. I expect him to be a force in this game and to get to Maye for a sack.

Bet 6: Austin Hooper Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This next one is a real ugly bet, but I actually like Austin Hooper over 9.5 receiving yards. Over the last two weeks, all we’ve heard is that the Seahawks’ elite defense struggles against tight ends, and a lot of people are pointing to this potentially being a Hunter Henry game.

I think Mike Macdonald is going to try to take Hunter Henry away and force some of New England’s average or below-average receivers to beat them, which is completely fine and could very well happen. But I also think that opens up an opportunity for Hooper. New England can go into 12 personnel, put two tight ends on the field to help with blocking, and that could lead to Hooper getting on the field a bit more.

Because of that, I think Hooper maybe catches one or two balls in this game and ends up hitting the over on 9.5 receiving yards.

Bet 7: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 7.5 Receptions (+122)

The freshly named Offensive Player of the Year, or as some people are calling him now, the Emerald City Route Artist (ECRA) has been the most productive receiver in the NFL all season.

I know a lot of people are saying the Patriots are going to try to force anyone else to beat them, but you don’t think other teams have tried that all year long? It just hasn’t worked. Smith-Njigba is coming off a 10-reception game in the NFC Championship, where he put up 155 yards.

If the Seahawks are going to win this game, they’re going to need to force-feed JSN all day long, and I think that’s exactly what happens. I don’t know if he goes over his yardage total, but there’s no chance they go down without getting the ball to their best player. JSN will have at least eight catches in this game.

Bet 8: Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-115)

This is exactly what Shaheed was brought in for at the trade deadline, to make an explosive play in a huge moment.

I don’t think New England is going to be kicking to him much at all in this game, given how dangerous he is on special teams. But I do think Darnold could look for him downfield at least once to try to generate an explosive play and move the chains. If that happens, Shaheed is one of the fastest players in the NFL, if not the fastest.

Even if he gets the ball on something like a wide receiver screen, he can take it as far as anyone in the league. I don’t know if his volume is going to be very high in this game, but I do think he makes a big impact in terms of yardage. Because of that, I like Shaheed to clear 14.5 yards on his longest reception.

Bet 9: Kayshon Boutte Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Listen, we know Drake Maye has been one of the better downfield throwers in the NFL over the course of the season, even though he’s struggled with it over the past few games.

If the Patriots are going to win this game, it’s going to have to come through the air. Because of that, we know Maye is going to be throwing the ball downfield, and Boutte has been his favourite target on deep passes this year. I think Boutte probably makes one or two big plays in this game and ends up going over this number.

With a championship on the line, Maye is going to look for his favorite target downfield. I expect Boutte to cross this line.

Bet 10 (Parlay): Walker 3+ Receptions, Maye 1+ Interception, Darnold 25+ Pass Attempts, JSN TD, Seahawks Over 3.5 Team Sacks (+1050)

Now for our last play here, and the only parlay I’m giving out. It’s a bit of a long shot, but hey, it’s the Super Bowl. Why not take a shot?

The first leg is Kenneth Walker over 2.5 receptions. We know New England has one of the better defenses in the NFL, so while Walker might not make a huge impact in the run game, I expect the Seahawks’ offense to get him involved through the air. Even if it’s just short-yardage plays, they’ll want to get the ball in his hands, and I think Walker makes at least three catches.

Next, I’ve got Drake Maye to throw one interception and Sam Darnold to have at least 25 pass attempts. I’ve said it all along, both of these quarterbacks are going to throw the ball a lot in this game. These are two of the best run defenses in the NFL, and that’s going to force both teams to the air. Maye has struggled with turnovers throughout the playoffs, while Darnold, despite his regular-season turnover issues, has been careful with the football in the postseason. It looks like the Seahawks trust him, and because of that, I think he throws at least 25 passes. On one or more of those attempts, I expect him to be looking for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, especially in the red zone.

That leads into the next leg: JSN to score a touchdown. Smith-Njigba has been a monster all year long, and nobody has been able to guard him. In the final game of the season, the Seahawks are going to look for him in the end zone to put points on the board, and I think he delivers.

And finally, as you probably already know, I love the sacks in this game. I’m going with Seahawks team total over 3.5 sacks. The Patriots have given up five sacks in every playoff game so far, and I think that trend continues here. I expect Seattle to record at least four sacks.

I don't love giving out parlays, but it is fairly juicy and why the hell not give it out.

Enjoy the game everyone!