Are Markelle Fultz & Lonzo Ball the Worst No. 1–2 Pick Combo of the 21st Century?

Over the NBA trade deadline, one of the moves that caught my attention was Lonzo Ball being traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz, who then released him, and he was expected to go sign with a contender.

Well, as we enter March, Ball has not signed a contract with another team, and reports have emerged that there is a chance he doesn’t play another game in the NBA due to medical concerns.

Keep in mind, there was a knee injury that caused Lonzo Ball to miss two and a half seasons (2022-24) of basketball when he was a member of the Chicago Bulls.

With Ball’s career now in question, I found myself reflecting on the 2017 NBA Draft, in which he was selected second overall by the Los Angeles Lakers. I began to wonder if he and Markelle Fultz, who was drafted first overall by the Philadelphia 76ers that year, are perhaps the worst combination of the number one and two overall selections in a draft this century.

While Lonzo was an effective NBA player when he was on the court, there’s no way he should have been drafted second overall, and he just could not stay healthy enough to be effective for a long period of time.

Then we go over to Fultz. He simply just forgot how to shoot a basketball. If you recall, entering his rookie season, he had to get fluid drained from his shoulder out of nowhere, and then he seemingly developed a hitch in his shot that we did not see from him at the college level. It never truly went away throughout his NBA career.

After he left Philadelphia, Fultz did look like he could perhaps carve out a career for himself off the bench, as he averaged about 10 points per game throughout his career while shooting 47% from the field. But Fultz last played in the NBA last season for the Sacramento Kings in 21 games, and he hasn’t played a game in the league since.

There hasn’t been much traction on whether he will return anytime soon either.

So yeah, looking back on their careers, if this is the end for both of them in the NBA, Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz were probably one of the worst number one and two pick combinations in an NBA draft, especially when Jayson Tatum, who has developed into one of the best players in the NBA, was drafted directly behind them at third overall by the Boston Celtics.

So I've acknowledged that Fultz and Ball being the No. 1 and No. 2 overall draft picks was bad. But like I said before, I wanted to dive into how bad it actually is. And while looking at the No. 1 and No. 2 pick combinations from this century, it really is historically bad.

Well, upon my research, the only ones I can truly think of that were either bad or at least underwhelming are the following: 2001, where Kwame Brown and Tyson Chandler went No. 1 and 2; 2005, where Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams went No. 1 and 2; 2013, where Anthony Bennett and Victor Oladipo went No. 1 and 2; 2018, where Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III went No. 1 and 2; and 2024, where Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr went No. 1 and No. 2 overall.

So let’s go year by year.

In 2001, obviously, Kwame Brown is regarded as one of the worst first overall picks in NBA history. But Tyson Chandler, who went second overall, carved out a pretty solid career for himself. He won a championship, was a one-time All-Star, made an All-NBA team in 2012, won Defensive Player of the Year in 2012, and was a three-time All-Defensive team member.

Chandler was a very good NBA player. Was he a No. 2 overall pick worthy? Probably not. But he at least made sure this duo is not regarded as one of the worst ever.

2005, Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams. Bogut, while he was an underwhelming first overall pick, was by no means a bad NBA player. He also won a championship; he led the league in blocks in 2011; he made an All-NBA team in 2010; and he was also a member of the 2015 All-Defensive Team, while also being regarded as one of the best passing big men during his time in the NBA.

So while he didn’t necessarily live up to the expectations that come with being the number one overall pick, he still had a very respectable career and was an impactful player on a championship team.

Williams, on the other hand, doesn't have any great accomplishments throughout his NBA career or anything notable besides making the All-Rookie Team his first year. He did play nearly 1,100 games in the NBA and averaged about 10 points a game. So while he was not a number two overall pick worthy, he obviously did hold some value across the league.

2013 is getting close, because Anthony Bennett is, in my opinion, the worst number one overall pick in NBA history. He was just awful.

But Victor Oladipo, while he didn't start his career off that well with the Magic, did develop into a nice player. He became an All-Star when he got traded to Indiana, and he even took a LeBron James–led Cavaliers team to seven games in 2018.

So while injuries did derail his career, Victor Oladipo did develop into a very good NBA player who was just robbed of a long prime because of injuries. While Bennett really drags this duo down, Oladipo, when healthy, was a very effective player. He carved out a very solid career and showed flashes of being a potential superstar during his time with the Pacers.

Onto the 2018 class. Deandre Ayton, when he was with the Suns, did show flashes of being a superstar, and he was the starting centre on a team that reached the Finals in 2021. But he just doesn’t have that motor. As we’ve seen, he is not a winning player at this point in his career, as he has really struggled with the Los Angeles Lakers this year. Still, I don’t think he’s a god-awful number-one overall pick. He’s just a very disappointing one.

Marvin Bagley, on the other hand, at number two, is just awful. Bagley is still in the NBA, hanging by a thread, and I don’t think he will be there for much longer. And it’s even worse when you remember that Luka Doncic and Trae Young went directly after them, with Doncic going third overall and Young fifth overall. And that’s not even mentioning that the draft also included Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

So Ayton and Bagley suffer from being part of one of the best drafts of the last decade. But I don’t think Ayton is a truly awful No. 1 overall pick. Bagley is obviously not a great number two overall pick, but I still don’t think that duo is as bad as Ball and Fultz.

Then lastly, on to 2024. Going into that draft, it was widely regarded as not a great draft class, and so far that perception hasn’t exactly been proven wrong.

The Atlanta Hawks selected Zaccharie Risacher first overall, and so far, Risacher has not looked like a true number-one-calibre player. He’s already lost his spot in the starting lineup in his second year. Throughout his career, though, the numbers aren’t awful. He’s averaging almost 12 points per game and nearly 4 rebounds per game while shooting 45% from the field. His second year has seen a bit of a dip, especially at the free-throw line, where he’s shooting 59%.

I do think there’s potential for him to maybe get a fresh start elsewhere and begin to show more flashes, and it’s still too early in his career to label him a total bust, but I think it’s fair to say that he probably won’t live up to true number one overall pick expectations.

Meanwhile, in Washington, Alex Sarr has turned into a very nice NBA player. In his second year with the Wizards, he’s averaging 17 points per game, 8 rebounds per game, and shooting 50% from the field. He’s shown he can be a pretty solid defensive player, especially protecting the rim. And when he and Anthony Davis play together next season, that frontcourt pairing is going to be very interesting to watch.

Sarr has the potential to maybe even develop into an All-Star down the line. He’s really improved in his second year, and there’s a lot to like about his trajectory going forward.

So as of right now, with Risacher and Sarr both in their second seasons, it’s fair to say they will likely end up being a better number one and two pick duo than Ball and Fultz were in 2017.

So, to cap this off, I think after going through this exercise, it’s pretty clear that Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz are the worst number one and two overall pick combination of this century. I didn’t go back into full NBA history because that wasn’t the goal here. I just wanted to look at the 21st century. And based on everything laid out, I think it has to be viewed as a consensus that the 2017 draft produced the worst No. 1 and No. 2 overall pick duo of this century.

Now, I want to make something clear. I don’t entirely blame this on them. Both of their careers were heavily derailed by injuries. Fultz had the mysterious shoulder issue early on, later dealt with a torn ACL, and never fully recovered his shooting form. Lonzo Ball’s ankles and knees just gave out on him. He missed multiple seasons because of that knee injury, and it completely changed the trajectory of his career.

So you can’t entirely put this on them as players. Injuries played a massive role in their downfalls.

And one more thing, I haven’t completely given up on Lonzo Ball. I still think he could carve out a role for himself as a winning player off the bench. I’m just not sure he’ll ever get that opportunity because teams are going to be understandably terrified of his medical history.

In all, this is just very unfortunate more than anything, but when you compare 2017 to the other top-two combinations this century, I do think it’s fair to say Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz go down as the worst No. 1 and No. 2 overall pick combinations of the NBA’s 21st century.

At least so far.