NFL 2026 Predictions: Division Winners, Playoff Picks, Super Bowl & Award Predictions

After a long wait, the NFL is finally back, and so are my predictions.

I went through all 272 regular-season games, projected the playoff picture, and ultimately came away with my predictions for how the entire season could unfold. For these picks, I had to put my fan perspective aside (for the most part) and approach things from a purely analytical standpoint.

This isn't intended to be a huge deep dive into my predictions, as I've also made several videos covering these predictions on my TikTok and Instagram accounts, which will be linked in this post. But with that said, let's get into my complete division-by-division predictions, playoff matchups, and who will eventually hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy on February 14th, 2027, in Los Angeles.

AFC East:

1. Buffalo Bills 11-6

2. New England Patriots 11-6

3. New York Jets 4-13

4. Miami Dolphins 1-16

In the AFC East, I see the Buffalo Bills winning it, even though they tie the New England Patriots. After going through the tiebreaker scenarios, the Bills win it based on common opponents.

I do think New England is a much better team on paper, but I just have a hard time believing that Josh Allen won't win this division two straight years in his prime, even though New England has a good season themselves and gets themselves back in the playoffs.

As far as the Jets and Dolphins go, not much to say. I've got the Dolphins being even worse than people think, only winning one game this year. And the Jets are just the Jets. Aaron Glenn will be gone by midseason, Geno Smith might get benched by midyear. Not much to say there.

AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens 12-5

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-8

3. Cincinnati Bengals 9-8

4. Cleveland Browns 3-14

In the AFC North, I think people are talking themselves into this division being more competitive than it is. I think the Ravens are by far the best team.

I love the hire of Jesse Minter as the new head coach. I think he'll turn around that defense instantly, and in Lamar Jackson, I expect an MVP-caliber year from him. Derrick Henry shows no signs of age. I think the Ravens cruise to this division title.

Two and three, I actually think it's a lot closer than people think, and I have the Steelers finishing slightly ahead of the Bengals, even though they have the same record. The Steelers win the tiebreaker.

I personally thought that when the Steelers and Mike Tomlin decided to part ways, that meant the Steelers were going to rebuild, Rodgers would retire, and that would be it. But he's back, and they hired his old coach, Mike McCarthy, and improved the offense. The defense will be better overall, too.

So I have to see 9-8, finishing by .500 in Rodgers' last year.

And as far as the Bengals go, I know people are talking themselves into them being a Super Bowl-type team. I hope I'm wrong because I love me some Joe Burrow, but I just don't trust the organization. I don't trust the offensive line. I don't trust the defense, even though they made improvements. I don't trust Joe Burrow's health.

And in my mind, I just don't see a scenario with Zac Taylor's back as head coach in 2027. And if that's going to happen, the Bengals have to miss the playoffs, I think, which is what I think will happen.

And as far as the Browns go, they do got some weapons on offense and young talent. But the quarterback play will be awful, which will hold them back. And they traded Myles Garrett. Even though Jared Verse is a solid return, you can't convince me that this defense will be anywhere near the level it was last year by trading the best player in the NFL.

The Browns will just be awful. Not much to say.

AFC South:

1. Houston Texans 13-4

2. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8

3. Indianapolis Colts 8-9

4. Tennessee Titans 4-13

In the AFC South, I like the Houston Texans dominating from start to finish. I think they not only win this division, but they end up with the number one seed.

We know how good DeMeco Ryans and that defense will be. It might be the best overall unit in the NFL, and as long as C.J. Stroud just plays at like a C+ level, the Texans are going to be fine.

The Jags, I think they take a slight step back from last year, only going 9-8 and missing out on the playoffs. I think Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen will actually have more chemistry, but I just don't think that defense will be as good as it was last year. They benefited from a ton of turnovers, and I expect that to take a step back.

The Colts, I've got them at 8-9. I actually do love the weapons they have on offense, and I even like the secondary they've created now with Sauce Gardner and everyone. But I just don't trust Daniel Jones to, one, stay healthy, and two, keep up the level of play we saw from him in the first half of last year, which I think will hold them back.

And the Titans, I have real concerns about Cam Ward. Everything we've seen out of him from preseason this year has not been pretty, and I'm really, really not convinced he's the franchise quarterback they thought they were getting after the 2025 draft.

I think this will be a rough year in Tennessee.

AFC West:

1. Denver Broncos 12-5

2. Los Angeles Chargers 11-6

3. Kansas City Chiefs 10-7

4. Las Vegas Raiders 5-12

In the AFC West, I think the Broncos win this for the second straight year, going 12-5 this time around. I just think this is the best up-and-down roster in this division, and I don't even think it's close.

I love the addition of Jaylen Waddle. I think Bo Nix will be more consistent this year. I think they have the best combination of offensive and defensive line in the league, allowing them to dominate the trenches. Denver proves that last year wasn't a fluke and that they're a serious contender.

The Chargers, I've got also getting back to the playoffs at 11-6. I love Mike McDaniel coming in as offensive coordinator, but I do think as big of an addition as McDaniel is to their coaching staff, the loss of Jesse Minter could be just as big, and that could hurt the defense.

But Jim Harbaugh wins games in the NFL. I trust Justin Herbert, at least in the regular season, so they get back to the playoffs.

Kansas City, I think they bounce back. I was much lower on them during the preseason and offseason as a whole, but as we get closer and closer to the season, and with the way Patrick Mahomes has been talking, I just really can't see him missing the playoffs two years in a row.

So that's all I can really say about Kansas City. I think they find a way to get into the playoffs, but I don't view them as a Super Bowl threat.

And then the Raiders go 5-12. Much better than they were last year, though. I like what they're building on offense with Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and starting to focus on the offensive line.

I think Klint Kubiak could get Bowers, like, JSN-type numbers like we saw in Seattle last year. But obviously, this whole organization comes down to what Fernando Mendoza looks like when he eventually gets into play.

I like Mendoza. I think he's actually going to be a solid pro, and personally, I hope the Raiders are bad enough where they can land Jeremiah Smith in the draft this year and get a nice young core going with Mendoza, Bowers, Jeanty, and Smith on offense.

I think that would give the Raiders a serious future here.

NFC East:

1. Dallas Cowboys 11-6

2. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6

3. New York Giants 6-11

4. Washington Commanders 6-11

In the NFC East, another tiebreaker leads to a division title, and I have the Cowboys winning over the Eagles.

I just really like everything we've heard , or, honestly, haven't heard out of Dallas. We haven't heard Jerry Jones talk much this offseason, which is good. It makes me believe he really does believe in this team.

I love Dak Prescott. I expect a huge year out of him. I love CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on offense, but obviously, any success the Cowboys will have will rely on the defense.

And I just think this unit is so much better. A full year of Quinnen Williams, Rashan Gary comes in, I love the drafting of Caleb Downs. People just seem to like this team, and I just think the stars are aligning in Dallas for the Cowboys to win the NFC East this year.

The Eagles still get into the playoffs. Earlier in the offseason, I was actually much lower on them as well, but the more and more I look at this roster, it's just still so good, especially that defense. That defense is, like, a top-four or five defense in the league.

That alone should get them into the playoffs. If they're going to be a real Super Bowl threat, it's going to come down to Jalen Hurts and the offense, and I think they do just enough to get into the playoffs.

The Commanders and Giants both go 6-11.

There was a point in the offseason where I thought the Giants could be, like, the surprise team with their new coaching hire of John Harbaugh and maybe be like last year's Patriots. Then I realized I actually don't like John Harbaugh. I think he's an overrated coach. I hate the OC hire of Matt Nagy.

And while I love Jaxson Dart, I love Cam Skattebo, and I think Malik Nabers could be one of the top five receivers in the NFL one day, all three of them have injury questions, which makes me doubt how often you're even going to see these three on the field together.

And as far as the Commanders go, they've sabotaged any future they had after that 2024 season where they got to the NFC Championship Game in Jayden Daniels' first year. It's all just been downhill from there.

The defense is awful. The offensive line is awful. The weapons are old. The team is old. I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Quinn is gone after this year.

The only things I really like on this team are Daniels and Sonny Styles.

NFC North:

1. Detroit Lions 12-5

2. Minnesota Vikings 10-7

3. Green Bay Packers 9-8

4. Chicago Bears 9-8

In the NFC North, I've got the Detroit Lions winning this division at 12-5. There's not much to say. I think this is the best roster in this division. They have the easiest schedule, and Dan Campbell will have this group ready to go after finishing in last place with a huge bounce-back season.

And in second, I've got the Minnesota Vikings. I think Kyler Murray is extremely underrated going into the season. I think he'll get the most out of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and the rest of the weapons on this offense. Especially with Kevin O'Connell, I think he could just get the most out of Kyler Murray.

And we know what Brian Flores has with that defense. I have the Vikings going back to the playoffs.

Both the Packers and Bears go 9-8. I've got the Packers going third and the Bears going fourth.

I liked the idea of the Packers finishing ahead of the Bears a lot more before the past few weeks, with the whole Josh Jacobs situation. Is he playing? When's he playing? And when he does play, is he going to be allowed to play for the Packers? It's just a lot of drama there.

And then Micah Parsons' injury, also. When's he coming back?

I expect a slow start for the Packers, which ultimately I do think will be followed up by a strong end to the season, but it's not going to be enough to get to the playoffs. And if that's the case, you wonder if that costs Matt LaFleur his job.

And in last place, I've got the Bears going fourth. Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, I think, will be much better in their second year together on offense, but I just hate this defense. It was awful last year. It's going to be awful again.

I think they benefited a lot from turnovers, and I just think that's going to regress to the mean. So I think there's going to be a lot of soul-searching in Chicago after this year.

Still a good football team , probably the best fourth-place team in the NFL, but it's going to be a disappointing year in the Windy City after such a magical 2025 season.

NFC South:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9

2. New Orleans Saints 7-10

3. Carolina Panthers 7-10

4. Atlanta Falcons 6-11

God, I hate the NFC South and I don't really care about it, but somebody's gotta win it, so I'm going to go with the team that I think has the most talent: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, even if I do think they'll have a losing record.

I would've liked this team a lot more if they had just fired Todd Bowles at the end of last year and had just extended Baker Mayfield already, who looked like an MVP-caliber player during the first half of last year before he got injured and such.

But that just means Baker's going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder.

If the Bucs can remain healthy, they should have one of the better defenses in the league and one of the better offensive lines. I think Mayfield will be much better than he was last year, and they win in spite of Todd Bowles.

In second place, I've got the New Orleans Saints. I really wanted to pick the Saints to win this division and be a team that went from worst to first, but the injuries just really concern me.

Jordan Tyson, the eighth overall pick, is already gone for probably the first five or six weeks of the season, if not more. Travis Etienne has struggled with injuries in the past, Alvin Kamara is going up there in age, and even though Chris Olave was healthy all last year, he's always one hit away from being gone for four weeks with his concussion history.

I like the offensive line that will keep Tyler upright, but I do wonder if there will be a point in the year where they're starting, like, their third- and fourth-string receivers.

I think they take a huge step, but they ultimately miss the playoffs, at least for their division's sake.

In third, I've got the Carolina Panthers. Going into training camp, I thought this was going to be the team I actually would pick to win the South and repeat as champions, but the injury bug just killed this team.

I think Bryce Young probably does have his best season to date, which isn't exactly saying much based on how bad his first two years were, but I think the Panthers take a step back.

And then the Falcons. I just hate this team so much. The weapons are elite with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, but the quarterback play is going to be inconsistent. Tua is awful, Michael Penix Jr., we just have no idea what he is aside from being injury-prone as well, and there's just no team I'm more confident in seeing their third-string quarterback this year.

So maybe Kevin Stefanski can get the most out of that guy, but I think it's going to be a rough year in Atlanta, and hopefully it's enough to put them in position to draft a quarterback in next year's draft.

NFC West:

1. Los Angeles Rams 14-3

2. Seattle Seahawks 12-5

3. San Francisco 49ers 9-8

4. Arizona Cardinals 3-14

And then the NFC West. I hope, I hope, I hope I'm wrong because I'm a Seattle Seahawks fan and I feel like we're the most disrespected Super Bowl champion I've ever seen, but there's probably a reason for that.

The Rams loaded up this roster, and now, I don't want to just hand them the division and the Super Bowl because I think the Seahawks will have something to say about it.

The Rams almost beat the Seahawks last year. Myles Garrett joined that team, Aaron Donald's out of retirement, and the Rams, many people will argue, I disagree, but many people will argue, that they were the better team last year.

I think they do enough to win the division this year.

And as far as my Seahawks, we're bringing a lot of people back. I think there's going to be a lot of continuity there, and I love Mike Macdonald. That defense will be elite once again.

But my concern is just the offense and how they're going to replace Klint Kubiak. We saw what happened with Macdonald at the OC hire in his first year on the job, and while they still won 10 games, the offense just held them back.

I think Brian Fleury will be better than Ryan Grubb was, but I still need to see it to believe it.

The Seahawks are still going to be dominant this year, winning 12 games, but it's not going to be enough to win the division this time around.

The San Francisco 49ers finish in 3rd at 9-8.

There's not been a team I've seen with more bad juju that had expectations going into a season, whether it's their head coach being in a car accident before the year and almost going blind, whether it's the whole Brandon Aiyuk situation, whether it's the substation conspiracy and if that's affecting their players getting injured, or now just a guy who's pretending to be on their team to seduce women.

It's just a weird vibe with this team.

You've got to account for injuries. I think they'll miss Robert Saleh, and I just think the teams around them got better. Not in the division, but the NFC in general is still competitive.

So they miss the playoffs.

And the Cardinals, they're the Cardinals. They're going to win three games this year.

I actually do think they are building a solid foundation for when their quarterback of the future does arrive, as they'll have weapons like Jeremiyah Love, Trey McBride, MHJ, and Michael Wilson.

But hopefully, they just get the offensive line fixed when that guy comes in.

The Cardinals, I think they're going to cover a lot of spreads this year because they'll be so bad and they're going to put up garbage-time numbers. I've hated last year, but they're going to lose a lot.

Playoff Picture

AFC

1. Houston Texans — 13-4

2. Baltimore Ravens — 12-5

3. Denver Broncos — 12-5

4. Buffalo Bills — 11-6

5. Los Angeles Chargers — 11-6

6. New England Patriots — 11-6

7. Kansas City Chiefs — 10-7

NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams — 14-3

2. Detroit Lions — 12-5

3. Dallas Cowboys — 11-6

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 8-9

5. Seattle Seahawks — 12-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles — 11-6

7. Minnesota Vikings — 10-7

AFC Wildcard

• (4). Bills over (5). Chargers

• (3). Broncos over (6). Patriots

• (2). Ravens over (7). Chiefs

NFC Wildcard

• (5). Seahawks over (4). Buccaneers

• (6). Eagles over (3). Cowboys

• (2). Lions over (7). Vikings

AFC Divisional

• (1). Texans over (4). Bills

• (3). Broncos over (2). Ravens

NFC Divisional

• (1). Rams over (6). Eagles

• (5). Seahawks over (2). Lions

AFC Championship Game: (3). Broncos over (1). Texans

In the AFC playoffs, starting in the Wild Card round, we get a matchup between a couple of teams that have playoff demons: the Bills and Chargers.

I think Justin Herbert plays his best playoff game today, but Josh Allen has been here before. You can at least count on him to win in the Wild Card round. I like the Bills over the Chargers.

I thought the Broncos were going to beat the Patriots last year in the AFC Championship Game with a healthy Bo Nix this year. I think the Broncos get their revenge against the Pats this time on Wild Card weekend.

And I think Lamar Jackson gets a signature win of his career, taking down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Heading over to the Divisional Round, Josh Allen and the Bills have historically struggled against this Houston Texans defense, and I don't think C.J. Stroud will be as overwhelmed as he was against New England's defense last year. I think the Texans get past Buffalo.

Then, I think the Broncos go into Baltimore and win in somewhat of an upset to get back to the AFC Championship Game.

I think we get an AFC title game between the Broncos and Texans, a matchup between two similar teams. Although, I think what separates them is the trenches.

I think Denver has maybe the best offensive line in the league, and while Houston has one of the best defensive lines, Denver has that as well. The Texans' offensive line might be horrible, and most of all, I think that will help the Broncos win this game and take advantage of the matchup.

Bo Nix comes up clutch in the end, and the Broncos get themselves to the Super Bowl.

NFC Championship Game: (1). Rams over (5). Seahawks

Heading over to the NFC playoffs, starting in the Wild Card round, I think the Buccaneers could scare the Seahawks, like we saw in their matchup last year, where the Buccaneers actually beat the Seahawks in Seattle.

But a lot has changed since then. I think the Seahawks now are just a straight-up more talented team, as they are the Super Bowl champions. I think Mike Macdonald is a much better coach than Todd Bowles, and I just think Seattle will be able to take advantage of Tampa. They go on the road and win.

I think the Eagles, even though they don't win the division, end up taking down Dallas in the Wild Card round. Say what you want about Jalen Hurts and his inconsistent play during the regular season, but he has proven in the playoffs that he's a gamer. He's a Super Bowl MVP.

And while Dak Prescott most of the time has good success in the regular season, like I expect him to have this year, I still have those questions about how he performs in the playoffs. Give me the Eagles to go on the road and win.

Then, in another divisional battle taking place on Wild Card weekend, I think the Vikings lose on the road to the Lions. I think the Lions are just a much deeper roster. I think the Lions have enough infrastructure to get over the Vikings and win.

Heading over to the Divisional Round, I think the Seahawks go into Detroit and win. I think it will be a great battle. It'll be interesting to see how Macdonald's defense fares, as the last time these teams played, which was in 2024, Jared Goff was actually nearly perfect in that game.

The Lions' speed could cause some problems, but I think Seattle is just a much better team. I think the defense will show up, and Sam Darnold, JSN, and company will be able to take advantage of that shaky Detroit secondary.

Seattle is back to the NFC Championship Game, where they will meet the Los Angeles Rams for the second straight year, as the Rams get revenge for their 2024 playoff loss to the Eagles in the Divisional Round on the road. But this time, the Rams have home-field advantage, and they get it done at home.

Then, in the NFC title game, as a Seahawks fan, I really, really, really want to talk myself into the Seahawks getting back to the Super Bowl for the second straight year, but I can't overcomplicate this.

The Rams almost beat us last year. They added Myles Garrett, shored up their secondary by bringing in Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie, and of course, Aaron Donald is back.

And Sean McVay is like the only coach who has just dominated Mike Macdonald straight up.

I think the Rams get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2021, where, of course, they hosted that game, and they will this time again.

Super Bowl LXI: (1). Rams over (3). Broncos

Super Bowl MVP: Matthew Stafford

Then, in the Super Bowl, I think we get a much better game than we've gotten in the past two years, as both of those have been blowouts.

I think the Broncos can actually put a scare into the Rams in that game. Like I said, I think the Broncos are the best combination of offensive and defensive line talent in the league. But at the end of the day, I just think the high-end talent and the depth on the Rams' roster will show up and find a way to win this game.

Whether that's Aaron Donald or Myles Garrett making a play on the defensive line, or Matthew Stafford causing a Riley Moss pass interference to get down the field, I just think if the Rams get to this game, they're going to be rolling.

They're going to be at home, and they're just going to be the more experienced team. They built this team to win a Super Bowl this year. All the pressure's on them, and I think they rise to the occasion and win the Super Bowl this season.

It's not exactly a bold take, but there's a reason everyone's picking this team to win.

Award Predictions:

MVP: Lamar Jackson

Offensive Player of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jadarian Price

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Caleb Downs

Comeback Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes

Coach of the Year: Jesse Minter

Protector of the Year: Tristan Wirfs

For MVP, I think Lamar Jackson comes back rejuvenated this year and wins another MVP. He's won an MVP the last two times he's had a new offensive coordinator, and I think Declan Doyle helps him get that third one. I also think Jesse Minter finds himself winning Coach of the Year in Baltimore as well. I think it's a turnaround year for the Ravens, with Lamar and his coach taking home some hardware this year.

For Offensive Player of the Year, I think Jahmyr Gibbs is the easy favorite for a reason. He's finally going to get the carries inside the red zone that David Montgomery took away from him this year. There's a legitimate scenario where Gibbs could score like 25 touchdowns this year, and I think he should win the award.

For Defensive Player of the Year, I don't want to overthink this. Myles Garrett isn't going to be getting double-teamed with Aaron Donald there now. He could break his own sack record. Garrett should win it. He's the favourite for a reason.

For Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jarian Price of the Seahawks is going to get the opportunities. The Seahawks want to run the ball, and they're going to be in a lot of big games. I think he'll put up decent numbers and will win this award.

For Defensive Rookie of the Year, although it's more of a pass rusher, and a safety isn't really a sexy position, Caleb Downs has been one of the most highly touted prospects over the past few years in all of college football. Playing in Dallas, where I have the Cowboys being very good this year, I think Downs will get the recognition as being a culture changer there, and Downs wins the award.

Patrick Mahomes again is a heavy favourite to win Comeback Player of the Year. He's coming off a torn ACL, and I think if the Chiefs get into the playoffs, Mahomes is a shoo-in for this award if he stays healthy.

And for Protector of the Year, it's not one I really put much thought into, but I think the Buccaneers have one of the best offensive lines in all of football. If they're able to keep Baker Mayfield upright, Tristan Wirfs will get a lot of credit for that, as he's the best player on that unit, and I think he'll win the award.