The Silcoff Selections: NFL Conference Championship Predictions – Straight Up & Against the Spread Picks

Records Last Week:

Straight Up: 3-1

Against The Spread: 1-3

Playoff Records:

Straight Up: 6-4

Against The Spread: 3-7

Regular Season Records:

Straight Up: 167-104-1

Against The Spread: 132-134-6

AFC Championship Game: (2) New England Patriots @ (1) Denver Broncos I Line: Patriots -4.5

Starting off with the New England Patriots going up to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos, it’s starting to feel like 2016 again. For me, right off the bat, it’s just going to be so nostalgic. Obviously this won’t be a Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning game, but just seeing those two logos up against one another with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line really takes me back. That alone makes this matchup special.

Now getting into the modern day versions of these teams, playing in Denver is obviously one of the tougher things to do in football. The altitude, the crowd, and when they’re a good football team, there aren’t many better home field advantages in the NFL. I’ll be honest, if Bo Nix were playing in this game, I would be going with the Broncos. All year long, the Broncos have shown they’re a very complete football team and they always seem to find a way to win.

On the other side, I don’t think Drake Maye has been great in the playoffs overall. He’s made a few really nice throws, especially that one to Kayshon Boutte in the divisional round against the Texans last week, which was an even better catch by Boutte. But I keep coming back to how close Denver’s games have been all season, and what separated them was Nix’s ability to show up in clutch moments. We saw it again last week when they were down 27-23 against Buffalo and he led a go ahead drive. Even after Buffalo answered to force overtime, Nix came right back and led a game winning drive after that controversial interception call.

I just think Denver is going to be missing that magic. Jarrett Stidham will probably play fine given the circumstances, but I just can’t bet on a quarterback who hasn’t played a meaningful game in two years and hasn’t taken first team reps all season. I understand Sean Payton is confident in him, and I like Payton a lot as a coach. I think he’s going to dig deep into his playbook for this game. But I think the quarterback discrepancy is going to be on full display late.

Defensively, I think New England and Denver are pretty comparable. Denver’s defense has been talked about like some elite unit, but I really don’t think they’ve been that impressive over the second half of the season. I wouldn’t rule the Broncos out at all, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win even without Nix. But at the end of the day, Nix was the guy making those late game plays, and I don’t know if Stidham can replicate that while being this rusty.

So I’m going with the New England Patriots to go on the road and win where they’re undefeated all year. I think the Patriots advance to Super Bowl LX.

Score Prediction: Patriots 19, Broncos 16

ATS Pick: Broncos +4

NFC Championship Game: (5) Los Angeles Rams @ (1) Seattle Seahawks I Line: Seahawks -2.5

Then in the NFC Championship Game, we get what might be the game of the year. The matchup everyone anticipated. The Los Angeles Rams taking on the Seattle Seahawks. And as a Seahawks fan, take this with a full grain of salt. I’m going to be totally biased with this pick.

Matthew Stafford has been the most consistent and best quarterback in the league all year long, but I keep coming back to the fact that he hasn’t looked great in the playoffs. The Rams secondary hasn’t been good at all. Byron Young has been limited all week in practice, and I don’t know how effective he’s going to be. I know a lot of people are saying the Rams should’ve won the last matchup, and they probably should have. They blew that game. But Sam Darnold led two touchdown drives late, one to tie it and one in overtime to win it. Could he and Klint Kubiak have figured something out?

I don’t think Darnold is going to turn the ball over as much in this game. I actually think this will be the best game of his career, win or lose. I think he shows up, I don’t think he completely falls apart, and I think this one stays tight all the way through.

I even think this game could go to overtime once again between these two teams. And at the end, I just think Mike Macdonald's Seahawk defense makes one more play than the Rams defense.

That stadium is going to be unbelievably loud, probably the craziest environment of the entire postseason. We’ve seen how insane it can get, and I think it reaches another level for this game.

It’s probably not the smartest pick, and I’ll admit that fully, but I’m taking the Seattle Seahawks at home. I think they advance to the Super Bowl to take on the New England Patriots.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 26, Rams 24

ATS Pick: Rams +2.5