2026 NBA Finals Prediction: Why I'm Picking the Knicks to Win the NBA Championship

Last weekend, once the NBA Finals matchup was officially set between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs, I wrote about why I believe this is the perfect NBA Finals for the NBA.

You have the future face of the league in Victor Wembanyama, who has already established himself as arguably the best player in basketball, going up against one of the sport's most iconic franchises in the league's biggest market.

New York is a basketball-starved city looking for their basketball team to win the team's first championship since 1973, and when you combine their history, brand power, and passionate fanbase, it's easy to see why this matchup is probably the matchup the league wanted.

But while I talked about why this matchup is great for the NBA, I never actually made a prediction.

So now that the Finals are here, it's time to put it on record.

I'm picking the New York Knicks to win this series and the 2026 NBA title in seven games.

Yes, I know the Spurs are favourites, and they should be.

Wembanyama has transformed himself into the best player in the world. The guard trio of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper has been outstanding all season, and it's been shocking how poised both Castle and Harper have looked in their first playoff runs. This doesn't feel like a young team experiencing the postseason for the first time together.

They handled the Portland Trail Blazers in five games despite Wembanyama missing nearly an entire game and exiting another early due to a concussion. They survived a tough series against the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games. Then they did what almost nobody thought was possible this season by eliminating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder and two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the Western Conference Finals.

And came back from a 3-2 series deficit and won Game 7 on the road to do so.

Some people will point to injuries and say the Thunder weren't healthy. I'm not interested in that argument. Every championship run involves some level of injury luck. You can look at virtually every champion over the last decade and find a playoff opponent that wasn't at full strength.

The Spurs earned their place here.

They finished with the second-best record in basketball. They have the best player in the world. Mitch Johnson has done an incredible job coaching this group. They have home-court advantage.

They deserve to be favoured.

Yet, I'm still not picking them.

The reason is simple for me.

I think the Knicks have been the best team in the playoffs.

They haven't lost since Game 3 against Atlanta. They've won 11 straight postseason games. Their only two losses of the entire playoffs came by a single point in both games.

At some point, that stops being a coincidence.

Jalen Brunson has been phenomenal. Karl-Anthony Towns has been excellent. OG Anunoby was arguably their best player in the opening round. Mikal Bridges has found his rhythm. Josh Hart continues to be the ultimate energizer bunny. Mitchell Robinson has embraced his role and delivered exactly what the team has needed. Even a guy like Landry Shamet has been great for them off the bench.

Every significant contributor on this roster has stepped up.

While people talk about depth, neither team is really going beyond seven or eight trusted players anyway. For me, this series comes down to experience, execution, and who I trust most when the game is on the line.

That's where the Knicks have an advantage.

The Spurs have accomplished things this postseason that history says they probably shouldn't have. They beat Oklahoma City. They won a Game 7 on the road. They've repeatedly answered every challenge placed in front of them.

But there have also been moments where the youth has shown.

There have been stretches where Wembanyama has looked tired. There have been moments where he's looked frustrated. There have been games where San Antonio looked vulnerable.

The Knicks simply are more battle-tested over the past few years.

And if this series goes seven games, which I believe it will, I expect several of those games to be decided in the final few minutes.

In those moments, there isn't a player in the NBA I trust more right now than Jalen Brunson.

Brunson has become the league's best closer.

He never seems rushed. He never appears overwhelmed by the moment. He controls the pace, controls his emotions, and consistently gets games played on his terms. Whether he needs to slow things down or speed them up, he always seems to make the right decision.

Wembanyama is unquestionably the better overall player.

But in a close game with two minutes left?

I'm taking Brunson.

I think his calm demeanor, leadership, and ability to dictate the flow of a game will ultimately be the difference.

I also think the Knicks' experience advantage matters. This is Wembanyama's first playoff run. It's Mitch Johnson's first playoff run as a head coach. Madison Square Garden is unlike any environment in basketball.

At some point, I think the nerves will show.

Every all-time great has had to suffer before reaching the mountaintop. Michael Jordan did. LeBron James did. Hell, even guys like Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic did.

History says the path usually isn't this easy.

Could Wembanyama defy history again?

Absolutely.

That's why I believe this series goes seven games.

But when it's all said and done, I think Brunson delivers in the biggest moments, I think the Knicks steal a game or two in San Antonio, and I think New York finally ends its championship drought.

My prediction: Knicks in 7.

My Finals MVP: Jalen Brunson.

Either way, I think we're about to witness a classic.

This feels like a series we'll be talking about for years.

Wembanyama's time is coming.

I just don't think it's this year.

This year, I think the Larry O'Brien Trophy is heading back to New York.